Introduction. Modeling scenarios for the development of road industry enterprises in conditions of instability is an urgent problem, since the industry plays a key role in the development of infrastructure and the economy of Ukraine. Without proper modeling and planning, the development of the industry can become unmanageable, deepening the economic crisis. The study of this problem is of significant scientific and practical interest, as the results can be used for the recovery and further development of the industry in difficult conditions.
Problems. The special state, which began in 2022, significantly affected the state of enterprises, which led to the destruction of infrastructure, a reduction in the number of enterprises and a decrease in their profitability. In this connection, there is a need to assess the potential of enterprises and develop scenarios for their further development. Development of scenarios will make it possible to prepare for possible options for the development of events and ensure the sustainability of enterprises in the future.
Goal. Develop models that take into account various macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, unemployment and devaluation of the hryvnia. Simulate development scenarios of road industry enterprises based on the analysis of their potential in crisis and post-crisis situations.
Materials and methods. The article uses the following methods of scientific knowledge, such as analysis, synthesis and comparison, as well as basic modeling methods.
The results. Three main scenarios of the development of the industry were defined: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic. The pessimistic scenario predicts further deterioration of the situation with a possible decrease in the number of enterprises and profitability due to the continuation of the war and further economic crisis. A realistic scenario envisages a gradual recovery of the industry after the stabilization of the economy and the end of hostilities, although this process will be long and will require significant efforts on the part of the state and business. The optimistic scenario foresees a quick end to the war and an active recovery of the economy with the help of international support, which will contribute to the rapid recovery of the infrastructure and enterprises of the industry.
Conclusions. The analysis of the dynamics of the number of enterprises in the road industry, their size, volume of product sales, financial results and profitability for the period 2016-2022 revealed significant challenges faced by the industry. The model of the dependence of profitability on economic indicators showed a high correlation, which confirms its effectiveness for forecasting the development of the industry. The importance of preparing for different scenarios is obvious to ensure the sustainable development of the road industry in crisis situations.
